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梁 · 2022年05月08日

公式的分解

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2020012201000007

问题如下：

Alena,CFA, was updating her firm’s projections for US equity returns.If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, that the dividend yield would be 2.25%, and that there would be no further growth in P/E, what is likely to have been her baseline projection for continuously compounded long-term US equity returns?

选项：

A.

6.75%

B.

5.5%

C.

5.85%

解释：

A is correct

解释：

在长期，一国股票市场的增长率等于该国GDP的增长率(本题P/E增长率为0也证实了这一点)。那么本题就等于计算该国GDP的增长率。

Her baseline projection is likely to have been 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

依照公式可得：. 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

一直没有掌握好这个公式的fenj

这题这样理解吗

*D/P+增长率

增长率拆分



1 GDP增长+2 E/GDP增长+3 P/E增长

这题说第三项 p/e是0

第一项GDP是拆分为 labor input增长和 效率增长

那么第二项呢 这里是默认为0

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2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年07月15日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


公式其实反映的是下图第一行和第二行。

其中第二行的公式反应的是第一行中的一项。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

源_品职助教 · 2022年05月09日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：



同学你的理解基本是对的。

股票增长率等于价格的变动+分红。

价格变动率是等于GDP增长率

GDP中第二项长期也是默认为0的。

如果是个大于0的数，长此以往，上市公司要吞并这个国家GDP，这是不可能的

如果是个小于0的数，场次以往，上市公司都要破产倒闭归于0，这也是不可能的。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

wangtao19910225 · 2022年07月15日

这题的公式可以列举解释一下吗？

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