NO.PZ201710200100000203
问题如下：
3. Using Withers’s assumptions for the H-model and the basic two-stage dividend discount model, the forecasted Ukon stock price at the end of the year 2021 for the H-model should be:
选项：
A.lower than the basic two-stage model.
B.the same as the basic two-stage model.
C.higher than the basic two-stage model
解释：
A is correct. During the first stage, the basic two-stage model has higher (i.e., 5%) growth than the H-model, in which growth is declining linearly from 5.0% to 3.5%. Higher growth rates result in higher forecasted dividends and stock prices at the beginning of the sustained growth phase. Because the long-term dividend growth rates are the same for both models, the difference in forecasted stock price arises from growth rate differences in the first stage.
Therefore, the dividend at the end of the first stage will be lower for the H-model than for the basic two-stage DDM, and the terminal value will be lower in the H-model than in the two-stage model. Specifically, the 2021 dividends will be
2.734 (i.e., 2.315 × 1.05 × 1.045 × 1.04 × 1.035) for the H-model versus 2.815 [i.e., 2.315 × (1.05)4] for the basic two-stage DDM.
看到有同学也问“老师，我的思路是直接画图，Hmodel是三角形，而two stage是长方形，所以two stage面积大，这样可以吗”。老师回答完全正确。
看到老师的解说，及视频老师的讲解都说，这个提问的是在2021年末（2022年初）比较两种模型哪个价值大？
我觉得这个里面有个很大的误导（请老师认真帮忙看看是否这个逻辑）：
1、本题不是考两个模式在最初时间计算的出来的价值谁大？不是去对比两个方法的总价值。如果是，总价值肯定是很简单的，肯定H模型是小的，面积不同。也就是有的同学说的比较面积。
2、但这个题考的是站到2022年这个时点往后看，两个模型假设的最终的g都是一样的情况下，谁的估值更大。
3、是指因为2022年初这个时点的D0不同，所以就用GGM公式直接计算出来金额不同的，那就是谁在2022年的D0更大，谁的估值就更大。
