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开泰-王飞 · 2022年10月02日

为何说fip被高估？

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2020012102000011

问题如下：

Fap is a small country whose currency is the Fip. Three years ago, the exchange rate was considered to be reflecting purchasing power parity (PPP). Since then, the country’s inflation has exceeded inflation in the other countries by about 5% per annum. The Fip exchange rate, however, remained broadly unchanged.

What would you have expected the Fip exchange rate to show if PPP prevailed? Are Fips over or undervalued, according to PPP?

解释：

According to PPP, to offset the effect of the higher inflation in Fap, the Fip should have depreciated against the other currencies by approximately the difference between Fap inflation and that in the other countries. According to PPP, Fip is overvalued.

解析：根据购买力平价理论，为了抵消Fap中较高的通货膨胀的影响，Fip应该对其他货币贬值大约是Fap通货膨胀与其他国家之间的差额。根据购买力平价理论，Fip被高估了。

长期ppp成立即短期inflation会引发本币贬值，那么预示未来本币会升值，这不是说明现在fip被低估吗？

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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2022年10月08日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


PPP理论说的是，通胀高的国家，货币会发生贬值，贬值幅度约等于两国通胀之差。

这是PPP仅有的理论，这里没有于是未来再升值的推论，PPP理论本身也没有长短期之分。

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