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皓月 · 2022年11月26日

这题错了三遍

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202208160100000303

问题如下:

Daltonia Case Scenario

Daltonia is a medium sized developing country. Government policies have gradually opened the borders for international trade and the flow of capital. Trade is now substantial with members of the EU and is often denominated in Euros (€). During the early 2000s, privatization of some publicly owned industries, creation of a new free-floating currency, the Dornan (DRN), and sound policies implemented at the central bank put the economy on a track for steady growth and stability. Foreign currency reserves are sizable in comparison to the average daily turnover of the DRN.

Naim Birol, Minister of Finance for Daltonia, is preparing his annual report on the state of the economy and currency markets for the legislative branch of government. He will examine the long- and short-term trends in GDP growth, per capita income, inflation, and exchange rates. He is also responsible for recommending policy initiatives for the legislature to consider in order to promote overall economic prosperity for Daltonian citizens.

In order to estimate long-term GDP growth, Birol examines the data in Exhibit 1 intending to use Solow’s growth accounting equation.

Exhibit 1

Long-Term Trends of Daltonian Economy


Birol consults his colleague Ziya Pamuk to review the policy choices facing the Daltonian government and the possible effects on economic growth and per capita income.

Pamuk states:

“Daltonia’s politicians are debating the effects of growth rate policies focused on three outcomes:

  • higher rates of saving and investment

  • importing more technological innovations

  • greater investment in research and development (R&D)

I conclude that the impact from these policies will cause a long-term increase in the economy’s growth rate and our standard of living. Furthermore, if we emphasize R&D spending, then higher rates of saving and investment are unlikely to encounter diminishing marginal returns.”

Birol believes Daltonia needs to address a recent increase in inflation and appreciation in the exchange rate. Should these trends accelerate, the country’s present prosperity could be threatened. Birol and Pamuk discuss policy alternatives.

  • Birol states: “Since Daltonia allows capital to flow freely, the clearest choice is to implement expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stop the appreciation of the currency according to the Mundell–Fleming model.”

  • Pamuk replies: “The long run solution to the problem, at least according to the portfolio balance approach, would be a policy choice by the Daltonian government to run large budget deficits on a sustained basis.”

  • Birol adds: “There is also a timing dimension to consider. According to Dornbusch, with inflexible domestic prices in the short run, any decrease in nominal money supply will induce an increase in the domestic interest rate. This will encourage capital inflows and cause the exchange rate to overshoot to the upside in the short run, until domestic prices have a chance to react.”

Birol wants to be on the lookout for situations which might trigger a currency crisis. He and Pamuk discuss recent economic developments that might provide potential warning signs.

  • Birol: “Moving our currency to a floating exchange rate has reduced our susceptibility to a currency crisis.”

  • Pamuk: “Banking crises often precede currency crises, but our banking sector has grown and strengthened substantially by offering foreign denominated savings accounts to foreign investors and lending those funds for domestic infrastructure investments.”

  • Pamuk: “I’m concerned that the ratio of exports to imports has been increasing recently and the ratio of M2 to bank reserves has been falling.”

In examining the currency markets, Birol is concerned that local currency dealers are being taken advantage of by arbitrageurs from Europe. He analyzes the rate quotes in Exhibit 2 for evidence of triangular arbitrage and carry trade opportunities by European hedge funds attempting to exploit the DNR currency.

Exhibit 2

Interbank and Dealer Currency Quotes and Rates



Which of the statements regarding policy alternatives discussed between Birol and Pamuk in response to Daltonia’s recent increase in inflation and deterioration in exchange rate is least accurate?

选项:

A.Birol’s statement regarding Dornbusch B.Pamuk’s statement regarding the portfolio balance approach C.Birol’s statement regarding Mundell–Fleming

解释:

Solution

C is correct. Birol’s statement regarding the Mundell–Fleming model is inaccurate because restrictive (not expansionary) fiscal policy, along with expansionary monetary policy, would lead to capital outflows and cause the currency to depreciate assuming high capital mobility.

A is incorrect because Birol’s statement regarding Dornbusch is accurate.

B is incorrect because Pamuk’s reply regarding the portfolio balance approach is accurate.

看了解析,也看了视频,但还是很糊涂,能否把这是三个statement都讲讲?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年11月28日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


我们先看题目的问题:

Which of the statements regarding policy alternatives discussed between Birol and Pamuk in response to Daltonia’s recent increase in inflation and deterioration in exchange rate is least accurate?


这里问的是,在政策改变中,回应高通胀和货币贬值的政策,哪个不对。

我们需要分解这段话:

1、回应高通胀和货币贬值的政策,是什么政策:是降低通胀和促进货币升值的政策

2、题目问的是least likely:也就是说,哪个政策不是降低通胀和促进货币升值。

综合1和2:我们得出题目要我们选的是:哪个政策可以让货币更加贬值,让通胀更加高。


我们再看三个选项:


Birol states: “Since Daltonia allows capital to flow freely, the clearest choice is to implement expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stop the appreciation of the currency according to the Mundell–Fleming model.”

A选项是说,正资本自由流动的情况下,扩张货币和财政,可以停止货币升值。这句话不对。


我们看到,在High capital mobility下,货币扩张让本币贬值,财政扩张可以让本币升值。由于在这种情况下,本币升贬值不一定。因此不符合我们要选的“哪个政策可以让货币更加贬值,让通胀更加高”。所以不选A。


我们也不选B

  • Pamuk replies: “The long run solution to the problem, at least according to the portfolio balance approach, would be a policy choice by the Daltonian government to run large budget deficits on a sustained basis.”




让财政赤字可持续,是会让本币升值的。而本题需要选的是,让本币贬值的政策。所以不选B。


C is correct. Birol’s statement regarding the Mundell–Fleming model is inaccurate because restrictive (not expansionary) fiscal policy, along with expansionary monetary policy, would lead to capital outflows and cause the currency to depreciate assuming high capital mobility.

C正确。本题要选出让货币贬值的政策。根据Mundell fleming model,扩张货币和紧缩财政,会让货币贬值.



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