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dejiazheng · 2024年01月23日

答案中表格最后一行为什么乘的是1.05而非1.03？

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

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NO.PZ201710200100000202

问题如下：

2. Using her first valuation approach and Exhibit 1, Withers’s forecast of the per share stock value of Ukon Corporation at the end of 2017 should be closest to:

选项：

A.

EUR 48.

B.

EUR 50.

C.

EUR 51

解释：

C is correct based on Withers’s assumptions applied to the dividend valuation model. The stock value as of the end of 2017 equals the present value of all future dividends in 2018 through 2021 plus the present value of the terminal value at the end of 2021. The forecasted stock value equals EUR 51.254:


57.980

60.795

44.686

2022

2.815(1.03) = 2.899




Total




51.254

The terminal value at the end of 2021 is calculated using the dividend in the first year beyond the first stage, divided by the difference between the required rate of return and the growth rate in the second stage.

Terminal value at end of 2021 = 2.815*(1.03)/ ( 0.08−0.03 ) =57.980

我计算方式是：第二阶段的GGM=2.68*1.03/0.05=55.208，跟答案不一致，但没觉得哪里有错？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年01月23日

同学你好，你再仔细算一下，2018年开始到2021年结束，是4年的时间，不是3年，所以第一阶段有4年，D1到D4都按照5%的增长率计算

第二阶段从2022年开始，D5=D4*1.03,然后用GGM计算terminal value折现至2021年，对应的就是解析中这里的计算”Terminal value at end of 2021 = 2.815*(1.03)/ ( 0.08−0.03 ) =57.980“

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NO.PZ201710200100000202 问题如下 2. Using her first valuation approaanExhibit 1, Withers’s forecast of the per share stovalue of Ukon Corporation the enof 2017 shoulclosest to: A.EUR 48. B.EUR 50. C.EUR 51 C is correbaseon Withers’s assumptions applieto the vinvaluation mol. The stovalue of the enof 2017 equals the present value of all future vin in 2018 through 2021 plus the present value of the terminvalue the enof 2021. The forecastestovalue equals EUR 51.254:57.98060.79544.68620222.815(1.03) = 2.899Total51.254The terminvalue the enof 2021 is calculateusing the vinin the first yebeyonthe first stage, vithe fferenbetween the requirerate of return anthe growth rate in the seconstage.Terminvalue enof 2021 = 2.815*(1.03)/ ( 0.08−0.03 ) =57.980 能画个图把时间点标注一下吗

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