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zkii · 2022年03月28日

货币这块我是理解的,财政这块?

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NO.PZ202105270100000302

问题如下:

In response to the projected cyclical decline in the Eastland economy and in private sector borrowing over the next year, Hadpret expects a change in the monetary and fiscal policy mix. He forecasts that the Eastland central bank will ease monetary policy.On the fiscal side, Hadpret expects the Eastland government to enact a substantial tax cut. As a result, Hadpret forecasts large government deficits that will be financed by the issuance of long-term government securities.

Discuss the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the monetary and fiscal policy mix projected by Hadpret.


选项:

解释:

Hadpret expects that, in response to a forecasted contraction in the Eastland economy, the central bank will ease monetary policy and the government will enact an expansionary fiscal policy. This policy mix has an impact on the shape of the yield curve.

The impact of changes in monetary policy on the yield curve are fairly clear, because changes in the yield curve’s slope—its flattening or steepening—are largely determined by the expected movement in short rates. This movement, in turn, is determined by the expected path of monetary policy and the state of the economy. With the central bank easing and the economy contracting, policy rates will be declining and will be expected to decline further as the central bank aims to counteract downward momentum in the economy. Bond yields also decline but by a lesser amount, so the yield curve steepens. The yield curve will typically continue to steepen during the contraction phase as the central bank continues to ease, reaching its steepest point just before the initial recovery phase.

Fiscal policy may affect the shape of the yield curve through the relative supply of bonds at various maturities that the government issues to fund deficits. Unlike the impact of monetary policy, the impact of changes in the supply of securities on the yield curve is unclear. The evidence seems to suggest that sufficiently large purchases/sales at different maturities will have only a temporary impact on yields. As a result, the large government budget deficits forecasted by Hadpret are unlikely to have much of a lasting impact on the yield curve, especially given that private sector borrowing will be falling during the contraction, somewhat offsetting the increase in the supply of government securities

Hadpret预计,为了应对东部地区经济预期的收缩,中央银行将放松货币政策,政府将实施扩张性财政政策。这种政策组合对收益率曲线的形状有影响。

货币政策变化对收益率曲线的影响是相当明显的,因为收益率曲线斜率的变化——变平还是变陡——在很大程度上取决于短期利率的预期变化。这一移动又是由预期的货币政策路径和经济状况决定的。随着央行放松政策和经济收缩,政策利率将下降,并预计将进一步下降,因为央行旨在抵消经济的下行势头。债券收益率也在下降,但下降幅度较小,因此收益率曲线变陡。随着央行继续放松政策,收益率曲线通常会在收缩阶段继续变陡,在最初的复苏阶段之前达到最陡点。

财政政策可能通过政府为填补赤字而发行的各种到期债券的相对供应来影响收益率曲线的形状。与货币政策的影响不同,证券供应变化对收益率曲线的影响尚不清楚。有证据表明,在不同期限进行足够大规模的购买/出售,只会对收益率产生暂时影响。因此,Hadpret预测的巨额政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响,尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降,在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加


货币这块由于ease政策,利率下调,那么收益率曲线是steepen。

财政这块,赤字就是说明加大支出,不应该是长期对货币的需求增加从而增加长期利率吗?为什么是不明确呢?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年03月28日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


对于利率是比较明确的,单独看政府支出,其他因素不变,是会提高利率。


但是对于曲线形状,则不一定了。尤其是现在,时代发展了,各种政策工具层出不穷。如果是通过发债来筹资,那么政府是可以干预曲线形状的,例如,如果大量发行较短期限的国债,会使短期利率上升更快,曲线平坦。而如果大量发行长期利率国债,会使长期利率上升更快,曲线陡峭。所以,曲线形状,取决于政府意图,而政府意图难测。另外,政府支出会挤出私人投资,私人投资被挤出也会影响到曲线形状,而且难以确定会造成何种影响。


所以这个就作为一个结论来记吧,财政,对曲线形状不明确。

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米妮涵 · 2023年03月27日

如果大量发行较短期限的国债,会使短期利率上升更快,曲线平坦。而如果大量发行长期利率国债,会使长期利率上升更快,曲线陡峭。——老师请问这是为什么呢?

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年03月27日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


如果大量发行较短期限的国债,会使短期利率上升更快,曲线平坦。而如果大量发行长期利率国债,会使长期利率上升更快,曲线陡峭。——老师请问这是为什么呢?


大量发短债,短债供应量很大,短债价格就会下跌。因为债券的价格和利率是反的,债券价格越低,利率越高。因此大量发短债会提高短期利率。

长债同理。

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NO.PZ202105270100000302问题如下 In response to the projectecycliccline in the Eastlaneconomy anin private sector borrowing over the next year, Haret expects a change in the monetary anfiscpolimix. He forecasts ththe Eastlancentrbank will ease monetary policy.On the fiscsi, Haret expects the Eastlangovernment to enaa substantitcut. a result, Haret forecasts large government ficits thwill financethe issuanof long-term government securities.scuss the relationship between the shape of the yielcurve anthe monetary anfiscpolimix projecteHaret. Haret expects that, in response to a forecastecontraction in the Eastlaneconomy, the centrbank will ease monetary polianthe government will enaexpansionary fiscpolicy. This polimix himpaon the shape of the yielcurve.The impaof changes in monetary polion the yielcurve are fairly clear, because changes in the yielcurve’s slope—its flattening or steepening—are largely terminethe expectemovement in short rates. This movement, in turn, is terminethe expectepath of monetary polianthe state of the economy. With the centrbank easing anthe economy contracting, polirates will clining anwill expecteto cline further the centrbank aims to counterawnwarmomentum in the economy. Bonyiel also cline but a lesser amount, so the yielcurve steepens. The yielcurve will typically continue to steepen ring the contraction phase the centrbank continues to ease, reaching its steepest point just before the initirecovery phase.Fiscpolimaffethe shape of the yielcurve through the relative supply of bon various maturities ththe government issues to funficits. Unlike the impaof monetary policy, the impaof changes in the supply of securities on the yielcurve is unclear. The evinseems to suggest thsufficiently large purchases/sales fferent maturities will have only a temporary impaon yiel. a result, the large government buet ficits forecasteHaret are unlikely to have muof a lasting impaon the yielcurve, especially given thprivate sector borrowing will falling ring the contraction, somewhoffsetting the increase in the supply of government securitiesHaret预计,为了应对东部地区经济预期的收缩,中央银行将放松货币政策,政府将实施扩张性财政政策。这种政策组合对收益率曲线的形状有影响。货币政策变化对收益率曲线的影响是相当明显的,因为收益率曲线斜率的变化——变平还是变陡——在很大程度上取决于短期利率的预期变化。这一移动又是由预期的货币政策路径和经济状况决定的。随着央行放松政策和经济收缩,政策利率将下降,并预计将进一步下降,因为央行旨在抵消经济的下行势头。债券收益率也在下降,但下降幅度较小,因此收益率曲线变陡。随着央行继续放松政策,收益率曲线通常会在收缩阶段继续变陡,在最初的复苏阶段之前达到最陡点。财政政策可能通过政府为填补赤字而发行的各种到期债券的相对供应来影响收益率曲线的形状。与货币政策的影响不同,证券供应变化对收益率曲线的影响尚不清楚。有证据表明,在不同期限进行足够大规模的购买/出售,只会对收益率产生暂时影响。因此,Haret预测的巨额政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响,尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降,在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加 这里说的短端利率是名义利率还是实际利率?宽松导致通胀上升和短端利率下降矛盾了,怎么理解?

2023-08-10 10:27 1 · 回答

NO.PZ202105270100000302 问题如下 In response to the projectecycliccline in the Eastlaneconomy anin private sector borrowing over the next year, Haret expects a change in the monetary anfiscpolimix. He forecasts ththe Eastlancentrbank will ease monetary policy.On the fiscsi, Haret expects the Eastlangovernment to enaa substantitcut. a result, Haret forecasts large government ficits thwill financethe issuanof long-term government securities.scuss the relationship between the shape of the yielcurve anthe monetary anfiscpolimix projecteHaret. Haret expects that, in response to a forecastecontraction in the Eastlaneconomy, the centrbank will ease monetary polianthe government will enaexpansionary fiscpolicy. This polimix himpaon the shape of the yielcurve.The impaof changes in monetary polion the yielcurve are fairly clear, because changes in the yielcurve’s slope—its flattening or steepening—are largely terminethe expectemovement in short rates. This movement, in turn, is terminethe expectepath of monetary polianthe state of the economy. With the centrbank easing anthe economy contracting, polirates will clining anwill expecteto cline further the centrbank aims to counterawnwarmomentum in the economy. Bonyiel also cline but a lesser amount, so the yielcurve steepens. The yielcurve will typically continue to steepen ring the contraction phase the centrbank continues to ease, reaching its steepest point just before the initirecovery phase.Fiscpolimaffethe shape of the yielcurve through the relative supply of bon various maturities ththe government issues to funficits. Unlike the impaof monetary policy, the impaof changes in the supply of securities on the yielcurve is unclear. The evinseems to suggest thsufficiently large purchases/sales fferent maturities will have only a temporary impaon yiel. a result, the large government buet ficits forecasteHaret are unlikely to have muof a lasting impaon the yielcurve, especially given thprivate sector borrowing will falling ring the contraction, somewhoffsetting the increase in the supply of government securitiesHaret预计,为了应对东部地区经济预期的收缩,中央银行将放松货币政策,政府将实施扩张性财政政策。这种政策组合对收益率曲线的形状有影响。货币政策变化对收益率曲线的影响是相当明显的,因为收益率曲线斜率的变化——变平还是变陡——在很大程度上取决于短期利率的预期变化。这一移动又是由预期的货币政策路径和经济状况决定的。随着央行放松政策和经济收缩,政策利率将下降,并预计将进一步下降,因为央行旨在抵消经济的下行势头。债券收益率也在下降,但下降幅度较小,因此收益率曲线变陡。随着央行继续放松政策,收益率曲线通常会在收缩阶段继续变陡,在最初的复苏阶段之前达到最陡点。财政政策可能通过政府为填补赤字而发行的各种到期债券的相对供应来影响收益率曲线的形状。与货币政策的影响不同,证券供应变化对收益率曲线的影响尚不清楚。有证据表明,在不同期限进行足够大规模的购买/出售,只会对收益率产生暂时影响。因此,Haret预测的巨额政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响,尤其是考虑到在紧缩期间私营部门借款将下降,在一定程度上抵消了政府债券供应的增加 哪些行为属于扩张的宽松的财政政策?帮忙列举一些?减税属于扩张的是吗?

2023-08-09 22:58 1 · 回答