NO.PZ2022122601000042
问题如下：
Li’s team also examined survey data within the consumer credit and telecommunications industries over the same time period for which the actual data were collected. They found that projections in the surveys of the CCI and TELI tended to be more volatile than the actual data. However, Li’s team has decided not to make any adjustments because a definitive procedure could not be determined.
A comparison between the survey data containing projections of the CCI and TELI and the actual CCI and TELI most likely exhibits:
选项：
A.ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk
B.are callability trap C.a status quo trap解释：
Correct Answer: A
As stated, the projections in the survey data tended to be more volatile than the actual outcomes over the same time period. This result indicates that the ex-post risk (i.e., the volatility of the actual data) tends to have a downward bias relative to the ex ante risk displayed by the survey data. This tendency is evidence of ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk.
中文解析：
如前所述，调查数据中的预测往往比同一时期的实际结果更不稳定。这一结果表明，事后风险(即实际数据的波动性)相对于调查数据显示的事前风险倾向于向下偏倚。这种趋势证明事后风险是对事前风险的一种有偏见的衡量。
我们学的是，用事后风险作事前风险的估计，应该是低估了risk，高估了return。但题目中说的是，预测的风险要高于实际实际的风险，那不是高估了risk了么？
