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Ausilio · 2024年02月02日

关于股票和通胀

NO.PZ2020012201000007

问题如下:

Alena,CFA, was updating her firm’s projections for US equity returns.If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, that the dividend yield would be 2.25%, and that there would be no further growth in P/E, what is likely to have been her baseline projection for continuously compounded long-term US equity returns?

选项:

A.

6.75%

B.

5.5%

C.

5.85%

解释:

A is correct

解释:

在长期,一国股票市场的增长率等于该国GDP的增长率(本题P/E增长率为0也证实了这一点)。那么本题就等于计算该国GDP的增长率。

Her baseline projection is likely to have been 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

依照公式可得:. 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

老师好,我记得二级好像讲过一个关于股票市场是抗通胀的还是不抗通胀的知识点?我也想问一下用GDP增长率计算股票增长率的时候如何考虑inflation rate呢?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年02月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



三级教材认为房地产是抗通胀的,没有股票抗通胀的结论。我印象里,二级经济学部分也没有哦。

一般情况inflation rate只要题目给出了,那么就可以加上,因为三级中大多数宏观经济变量都默认是REAL的。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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