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好好学习向前进 · 2024年04月25日

关于checklist approach

NO.PZ2020012201000010

问题如下:

Sara Izek and Adam Berke are members of the asset allocation committee at Cycle Point Advisors, which emphasizes the business cycle within its tactical asset allocation process.

Berke has developed a time series model of the business cycle that uses a published LEI series as a key input. He presents forecasts based on the model at each asset allocation meeting.

Izek is eclectic in her approach, preferring to sample research from a wide variety of source seach month and then focus on whatever perspectives and results seem most interesting. She usually brings a stack of charts she has copied to the asset allocation meeting.

Which of the main forecasting approaches (or combination of approaches) best describe(s) each analyst’s own practice?

选项:


A.

Izek’s practice is essentially a LEI approach.

B.

Both Izek and Berke uses the econometric modeling approach in conjunction with the LEI approach.

C.

Berke uses the econometric modeling approach in conjunction with the LEI approach.

解释:

C is correct.

Berke 用的 time series model 属于econometric modeling approach范畴,同时他还用了 published LEI series 作为关键变量,所以也结合了LEI approach

而Izek喜欢每个月从各种各样的资源中选取研究样本,然后专注于最有趣的观点和结果,其中还包含了很多图和表。这是checklist approach.

理解1:Berke用了 time series model 所以是先是modeling的方法,同时LEI因为是indicator指标,所以还结合了indicator的方法

理解2:Izek从资源中抽取样本,这个属于indicator的方法,但为什么还包括checklist的方法?

请问我的理解1是否正确,再解释一下理解2的问题


1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年04月25日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学的理解1是正确的。


checklist的方法是,通过客观统计方法,如时间序列分析,或通过更主观或判断的手段,将这些数据外推为预测。

抽样属于数学方法,但不是指标。抽样,做图标用于推测就属于checklist的方法

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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