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wxy · 2019年12月11日

decrease the price-to-earnings multiple是对估值有利的吗

decrease the price-to-earnings multiple不应该是表示P/E减小,那对公司是好事,表示将来看好这个公司,但是这里不是在说研发费用的支出将来会对公司带来负面效果,那就是说将来对公司不好,对公司是不利的,这样不应该是要增加P/E吗?再者对公司不好,那earning下降,肯定P/E也是增加的啊,为什么答案选了减小P/E。

题目:

Based on his financial forecast for Archway, French estimates a terminal value using a valuation multiple based on the company’s average price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) over the past five years. Wright discusses with French how the terminal value estimate is sensitive to key assumptions about the company’s future prospects. Wright asks French:

Q. The most appropriate response to Wright’s question about the technological development is to:

A. increase the required return.

B. decrease the price-to-earnings multiple.

C. decrease the perpetual growth rate.

Solution

B is correct. If the future growth or profitability of a company is likely to be lower than the historical average (in this case, because of a potential technological development), then the target multiple should reflect a discount to the historical multiple to reflect this difference in growth and/or profitability. If a multiple is used to derive the terminal value of a company, the choice of the multiple should be consistent with the long-run expectations for growth and required return. French tells Wright he believes that such a technological development may have an adverse impact on Archway beyond the forecast horizon.

1 个答案

maggie_品职助教 · 2019年12月16日

这道题终值使用乘数法来计算,也就是说预测期之后我们将根据公司自身和市场情况预测一个未来合理的PE倍数,再乘以预测期最后一年的盈利得到合理的股价。如果未来技术发展对公司经营产生不利影响,未来现金流下降,那么公司的终值预期就会下降,乘数就会下降。


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